Appearing on This Week With George Stephanopoulos, FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver warned that President Trump’s election fat is not “sealed” despite a deluge of polling pointing towards a big Biden win.
“There are a lot of unknowns. It’s probably too optimistic to expect major progress on a vaccine by November, but you never know.” Silver said “and people’s behavior around issues like masks can change. So how do you account for this in an election model? Basically, you add more uncertainty.”
“We’ve found, historically, that when there are lots of major news events and economic disruptions, an election becomes harder to predict.” Silver continued “So while he’s clearly in trouble, I do not buy that Trump’s fate is sealed. A lot could change in the next 100 days, things could get worse still for the president. But a turnaround in the COVID situation by the fall could make the election more competitive,.”