538 Forecast now gives Biden a 89% Chance of Defeating Trump

Popular analytics website FiveThirtyEight now gives Joe Biden a 89% of defeating President Trump.

The prediction model is based on polling and some other factors.

538 explains “We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios our model thinks is possible.”

In the “latest news” section, the blog writes:

We’re in the last full week before Election Day, and Joe Biden leads in both national and state polls. At this point, President Trump needs a big polling error in his favor if he’s going to win. Although the error doesn’t need to be as big as you might think, if you were just looking at national polls. Take Pennsylvania, the state our forecast currently thinks is most likely to decide the election. Biden doesn’t have much extra cushion in polls there, so a 2016-magnitude polling error could deliver the state to Trump. Remember, Trump has a meaningful chance of winning the election, per our forecast — a little worse than the chances of rolling a 1 on a six-sided die and a little better than the chances that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And remember, it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)