A new report from Bloomberg shows that the stock market gains after 3 years of Trump’s presidency eclipse those of other recent Presidents including Obama, Clinton, Bush 41 and Bush 43.
The Trump era has yielded a gain of 44.3% in the S&P 500 after 3 years.
The Obama era saw a gain of 25.1% after 3 years.
The Clinton era saw a gain of 41.2% after 3 years.
Economist Paul Krugman has of course been proven spectacularly wrong from his prediction that markets may “never” recover from a Trump Presidency.
“It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?” Krugman said in his post election night. “If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.”
Per Bloomberg, it’s been three years now since Donald Trump was elected president, which means it’s been three years of listening to Donald Trump bragging about how great the stock market is doing. Contrary to one now-infamous pre-election prediction, it has done quite well.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and other market indices are of course imperfect economic indicators. They reflect investors’ beliefs about how well publicly traded corporations are doing and will do in the future, not necessarily the reality of how publicly traded corporations are doing — or of how well the rest of us are doing.
The indices most cited in the media also mainly reflect the fortunes of the largest corporations; even as the Dow and S&P 500 have been setting new records lately, the small-cap Russell 2000 is down 9% from its peak in August 2018.
2017, Breitbart compiled a list of “experts” claiming Trump would be bad for stocks.
- Mark Cuban. “I can say with 100 percent certainty that there is a really good chance we could see a huge, huge correction,” Cuban told CNN. “That uncertainty potentially as the president of the United States — that’s the last thing Wall Street wants to hear.”
- Erik Jones. “You would see incredible pressure on stock prices if Trump wins and everyone flooding into rare metals like gold and into bonds” in the U.S., Germany and the United Kingdom, Erik Jones, professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, told Politico’s Ben White.
- Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz. “Given the magnitude of the price movements, we estimate that market participants believe that a Trump victory would reduce the value of the S&P 500, the UK, and Asian stock markets by 10-15%,” University of Michigan professor Wolfers and Dartmouth professor Zitzewitz wrote in a report that supposedly scientifically forecast the market’s reaction to Trump’s victory
- Andrew Ross Sorkin. The New York Times clomnist and CNBC anchor wrote: “In all likelihood, a Trump victory would lead to a swift, knee-jerk sell-off. Many investors will choose to sell stocks and ask questions later.” In fairness to Sorkin he hedged his believe in the sell-off by writing: In truth, it’s impossible to predict how the markets would settle into a Trump presidency, despite the speculation on all sides. In all likelihood, it will take time for investors to truly make sense and “math out” how his policies would affect the economy.
- Lawrence G. McDonald of ACG Analytics hedged also, predicting a massive sell-off followed by a relief rally. “Trump will create a colossal panic, but the relief rally will be outstanding,” he told Sorkin. Well, he got the rally right, anyway.
- Simon Johnson, a former chief economist of the IMF, a professor at MIT Sloan, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and co-founder of a leading economics blog, The Baseline Scenario had perhaps the most panicked reaction, in keeping with his status as America’s most authoritative economists. “With the United States’ presidential election on November 8, and a series of elections and other political decisions fast approaching in Europe, now is a good time to ask whether the global economy is in good enough shape to withstand another major negative shock. The answer, unfortunately, is that growth and employment around the world look fragile. A big adverse surprise – like the election of Donald Trump in the US – would likely cause the stock market to crash and plunge the world into recession,” Johnson wrote on October 29, 2016.
- Ian Winer, director of equity sales trading for the securities firm Wedbush, predicted a 50 percent fall in stocks if Trump won.
- Bridgewater Associates. “On Tuesday, Bridgewater Associates sent out a note to its clients predicting that the Dow Jones Industrial Average could plunge nearly 2,000 points in one day if Trump is elected president. That would be the biggest one-day slump in stock market history, by more than double, besting the 777 point plunge that happened on October 29, 2008, at the high of the panic surrounding the financial crisis. The drop would translate into a 10.4% dive, and immediately send the stock market into correction territory,’ Fortune‘s Stephen Gandel reported.
- Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup’s chief U.S. equity analyst. “A win for Donald Trump in next week’s election could take a big bite out U.S. stocks, according to the latest forecast from Citi,” CNN Money reported. “In a note to clients late Thursday, the bank said the S&P 500 will fall by 3% to 5% immediately if Trump is elected. A victory by Hillary Clinton wouldn’t move stocks significantly, it predicted.”
This article first appeared on TheConservativeOpinion.com