Trump campaign, RNC have registered more than double the number of new voters from 2016

Axios reports the Trump campaign and RNC have now registered 100,000 new voters in the 2020 cycle, more than doubling their numbers from 2016, according to new Trump Victory data provided exclusively to Axios.

Yes, but: Democrats are still registering new voters in key battleground states.

Between the lines: Trump won Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona and Iowa in 2016, but former Vice President Joe Biden is currently ahead in the polls in all but Iowa, according to FiveThirtyEight.

The voter registration gap between Democrats and Republicans has narrowed in some of these key states, according to Trump Victory and Axios’ reviews of those states records.

  • But a lot of it has to do with voters switching parties or dropping out of the electorate — not necessarily a surge of new voters registering as Republicans nor indicating new Trump voters, according to Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report.
  • Democrats are still registering more new voters than Republicans in many key states.

By the numbers: The Democratic advantage in Pennsylvania has been lessened by 133,000 voters since 2016, and 87,000 voters in Florida.

  • But among voters who have newly registered since 2016 in Pennsylvania, Democrats have a 15 point advantage, according to an analysis of a national voter file by TargetSmart CEO Tom Bonier. And in Florida, they have a 2 point advantage over Republicans.
  • Democrats’ net advantage has also shrunk in the tossup state of North Carolina.
  • Meanwhile in Arizona and Iowa, Trump Victory says they have managed to slow voter registration momentum behind Democrats.
  • In Iowa, the number of registered Democratic voters surpassed Republicans in March, but Republicans recently took back the advantage. Democrats had been outpacing Republicans in Arizona as well — but since April, Republicans have overtaken them.