“The Economist” Forecast Model Gives Biden a 93% Chance of Defeating Trump

A new forecast model from “The Economist” gives Democrat challenger Joe Biden a 93% chance of defeating President Trump.

The model gives Biden nearly a 19 in 20 chance of winning the electoral college and forecasts a range of 258-421 electoral college votes.

This compares to giving Trump just over a 1 in 20 chance of winning the electoral college with a forecasted range of 117-280 electoral votes.

It’s worth mentioning, a model in 2016 from the HuffPost gave Hillary Clinton a 98.1% chance of victory and could not have been more wrong.

From The Economist:

Estimated electoral college votes

Our model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict a range of outcomes. The midpoint is the estimate of the electoral-college vote for each party on election day.

Electoral-college simulations

Our model works by simulating 20,000 paths for the election, each time varying candidates’ vote shares to account for polling error, changes in turnout or the political environment and the effects of campaigning. The bars below represent the predicted likelihood of every plausible electoral-vote outcome.

Chance of winning each state

Our model combines the national prediction with polls and political-economic factors at the state level. We take into account that states that are similar are likely to move with each other; if Donald Trump wins Minnesota, he will probably win Wisconsin too.