A new study released Monday by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) found 2020 polls badly underestimated support for GOP candidates.
The polling missed the national results by the biggest margin in 40 years and erring in state surveys by the greatest amount in at least 20 years.
Vanderbilt University political scientist Josh Clinton said “There was a systematic error that was found in terms of the overstatement for Democratic support across the board.”
“It didn’t matter what type of poll you were doing, whether you’re interviewing by phone or internet or whatever. And it didn’t matter what type of race, whether President Trump was on the ballot or was not on the ballot,” he continued.
Per The Week:
The task force reviewed 2,858 presidential polls and found they were off by 3.9 percentage points nationally and 4.3 percent at the state level. The numbers for President Biden were fairly accurate, about a point higher than his final vote count, but Trump’s “support was understated by a whopping 3.3 points on average,” Politico reports. “The polls of Senate and governor’s races were off by an even greater margin: 6 points on average.”
All 66 national polls conducted in the last two weeks accurately predicted that Biden would win, the report found, but only 66 percent of Senate polls correctly forecast the winner.
The researchers believe a possible reason is “self-identified Republicans who choose to respond to polls are more likely to support Democrats” and pro-Trump Republicans simply refused to talk to pollsters at all.