In a new Op-Ed for “The Hill” Douglas E. Schoen makes the case that “without drastic changes, Democrats are on track to lose big in 2022.”
Schoen, a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg, writes:
The marked decline in support for President Biden and his administration nationally and in key swing states indicates that the Democratic Party could endure a blowout defeat in the 2022 midterm elections.
Moreover, Biden is in a significantly weaker position now than both of his most recent Democratic predecessors — Bill Clinton and Barack Obama — at this point in their presidencies, which suggests that Democrats could suffer even more substantial losses in 2022 than the party did in 1994 and 2010.
Indeed, voters nationally and in seven key swing states disapprove, rather than approve, of the job Biden is doing by a margin of 7 points or greater, according to a Civiqs survey released last week.
Nationally, 50 percent of voters disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president, while just 42 percent approve.
For reference, at the same point in Obama’s first term, Obama’s net approval rating was 19 points higher than Biden’s is right now. At the time, a majority of voters (52 percent) approved of Obama, while 41 percent disapproved, according to a Gallup survey released on Sept. 13, 2009.
That being said, in the 2010 midterm elections, Democrats lost a net of 64 House seats and Republicans gained six seats in the Senate.
Likewise, on Sept. 12, 1993, Clinton’s approval rating was recorded at 47 percent approve and 42 percent disapprove by a Gallup survey. To put that in context, Clinton’s net approval rating was 13 points higher than Biden’s is at the same point in his presidency.
Read more here.