“Demography is destiny” has been the left’s mantra for the last decade or so. They can’t wait for the country to turn majority-minority, which is predicted to happen in roughly 2045.
The left’s electoral calculation is, of course, as follows: As the country turns majority brown and black, the Democratic Party will be electorally invincible because, you know, they have minority voters in the bag. Per their calculation, brown native-born and foreign-born citizens especially will forever vote for Democrats because they represent the good party that looks out for minority voters, while the GOP is the evil, racist, white nationalist party.
In the short term, it looks like changing demographics benefit Democrats. In recent years, traditionally red states such as Arizona, Texas, and Georgia have been turning purple due to an influx of minority voters. But changing demographics won’t necessarily work long-term for Democrats for many reasons.
Minorities Aren’t Single-Issue Voters
First, as immigrants get older and more prosperous and assimilate into American society, they don’t reliably vote Democrat anymore. One reason is that Democrats’ redistribution policies don’t look very attractive to older immigrants who’ve worked hard for decades to build more prosperous lives.
But the big-picture reason may also be that as immigrants assimilate more into the American mainstream, they realize more fundamental political truths: The Democratic Party is more interested in having a co-dependent relationship with its voters — you vote for us, and we’ll give you free stuff.
The modern Democratic Party also increasingly pretends to be for the little guy but is actually a neoliberal outfit dominated by college-educated, affluent, coastal liberals. Not to mention, the Democrats’ fierce culture-war battles are calculated distractions so voters won’t focus on the pocketbook issues that affect both donors and voters.
Second, white voters hardly vote as a monolith, and minority voters don’t either. This might come as a surprise to the Democratic establishment and its overpaid analysts, but minority voters aren’t lemmings, can and do think for themselves, and are often a bundle of contradictions just like any other group of voters.
Do Democrats even realize how incredibly diverse the “person of color” constituency is? It contains multitudes: Asians from all over the Asian continent; Latinos from Mexico, Cuba, and Spain; Muslims from culturally different countries; African Americans; not to mention native-born minorities of every background and mixed parentage. All these voters have different ways of thinking about life, culture, and politics, which leads to another reason Democrats’ demography dreams are unsustainable.
Third, brown voters aren’t always single-issue voters who think only of immigration when they vote. In reality, minority voters have other interests and concerns similar to those of other voters. A Pew Research Center poll found that Hispanics’ topmost concerns are education, the economy, and health care. Minorities are not one voting blob, unable to look out for their economic self-interests and discern all the nuances of American politics and the machinations and hypocrisies of the Democratic Party.
Minority Voters Know What Is Best for Them
Election results bear out the above assertions. Donald Trump won in 2016 partly due to sizable percentages of Hispanic-American (29 percent) and Asian-American (29 percent) voters. Who knew this many deplorables were in the ranks of brown voters?
By all accounts, Hispanic and African-American support for Trump in 2020 has been steadily increasing. Oh, the racists! But the not-so-secret sauce for this burgeoning support has been their rising employment and increasing wages. It turns out that actually making people’s lives better economically counts more than empty gestures, such as talking endlessly about racism.
Fourth, brown voters are often motivated by the same things that motivate many white voters: self-interest and self-preservation. Although the modern Democratic Party’s position toward illegal immigration is de facto open borders, you won’t find many legal immigrants who think this is a good idea. My informal, non-scientific poll of my Indian-American community always unearths a version of this comment: “We immigrated to America to leave behind the problems of developing-country conditions, so why would we support uncontrolled mass immigration? That would only ‘Third-Worldize’ America.”
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