According to a new report from Amy Parnes of TheHill, while Democrats may show outward bluster and a sense of vindication in impeaching President Trump, many are privately fearful President Trump could still win re-election regardless.
A recent Gallup approval poll found Trump’s rating rising 5 points since impeachment, now eclipsing Obama’s at the same time of his Presidency.
Trump’s chances of re-election have also risen in multiple prediction markets since the impeachment inquiry began.
By Amy Parnes, TheHill
Democrats say it’s entirely possible that President Trump could be reelected in November, despite the shadow of impeachment cast over his presidency.
While Trump on Wednesday became just the third president in U.S. history to be impeached, the Democrats say he is boosted by a robust economy and a strong base of support from voters in swing states such as Wisconsin and Michigan.
He’ll be the first president to be impeached and then run for reelection, assuming a likely acquittal in the Senate, and Democrats don’t see him as an easy opponent to defeat.
“Yes, he can win,” said Democratic strategist Chris Kofinis. “And presuming otherwise is a recipe for repeating the mistakes of 2016. This isn’t a national election. He is going to lose the popular vote by 2 to 3 million votes, but the battlegrounds are still competitive and he won the Electoral College.”
Putting a fine point on it, Kofinis said Trump could be reelected “because if you look at past elections, no incumbent president has lost an election with a growing economy and peacetime conditions.”
While Trump has a disapproval rating around 52 percent, Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics said next year’s election “is Trump’s to lose.”
“Trump wins if the economy and his approval ratings are about the same a year from now as today, and turnout is typical. But if the economy stumbles, his popularity flags or Democrat turnout is big, the Democrats win,” he told Bloomberg News in an interview last month.
Fair’s model uses the nation’s gross domestic product to calculate shares of the two-party presidential vote. It currently projects the Democratic share as being only 45.9 percent as of October.
It should be noted that Fair’s model was off in 2016 by 7.1 percentage points. In a note, Fair wrote that while it is impossible to test why the model was so far off, it was probably due to Trump’s personality. While Trump still won the Electoral College, he concluded the GOP might have done much better with a more mainstream candidate.
Democrats are questioning whether they will have the right candidate to defeat Trump.
Some worry that former Vice President Joe Biden is a weak front-runner. At the same time, they are nervous that Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) are too progressive to appeal to more moderate voters in swing states.
“I could be completely wrong, but I don’t see a candidate yet who can deliver,” one Democratic strategist said on the eve of the next Democratic debate, scheduled for Thursday night. “They all have their problems.”
A USA Today–Suffolk national poll released Tuesday found Trump ahead of Biden by three points, though the poll also gave voters the option of picking an unnamed third-party candidate.
The survey also showed the president leading Sanders by 5 points, Warren by 8 points and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) by 10 points, also with a third-party candidate option.
Read more here.