In an Op-Ed for Newsweek, former Speaker Newt Gingrich explains why he believes Kamala Harris and not Biden will be the Democrat’s 2020 nominee.
First, he feels that the younger Democrat candidates who gathers the most social media buzz vs. the old school candidates will gather the most media attention.
Second, he believes every male candidate will be at a disadvantage due to the Democrat party’s identity politics.
Third, he feels Kamala Harris is more relatable than Warren, who comes off poorly when trying to connect with regular people.
By Newt Gingrich – Newsweek
The presidency is legitimately scrutinized more than any other institution in American life. It is the most powerful political-governmental office in the world. Anyone who decides to run for president must be prepared to endure, survive and surmount assaults on every aspect of his or her life. In 1972, when Senator Ed Muskie broke down crying in New Hampshire because of media attacks on his wife, he proved he did not have the toughness to be president. His campaign never recovered. My guess about Senator Harris becoming the nominee assumes she will be able to survive whatever unpredictable crises emerge during the campaign.
Remember, the gauntlet today is wider and tougher than ever before. In addition to reporters and the other campaigns’ researchers, we now have random eruptions by individuals out of the past who make headline-generating allegations that can take on a life of their own (note the cases of Justice Brett Kavanaugh, Governor Ralph Northam, and Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax as recent examples).
We live in the age of the Kardashians. The candidate that has rhythm will have an enormous advantage over the candidate that cannot capture the rhythm of the modern era. The media has never come to grips with the reality that President Trump has caught the rhythm of his times in a way which lets him be amazingly dominant.
The rise of Ocasio-Cortez, fueled by her adept use of social media, is in many ways a Kardashian function. President Trump’s years with the Apprentice TV shows and his mastery of Twitter and Facebook were—and still are—keys to his success. We do not yet know if one of the Democrats will turn out to understand the rhythm of the new, emerging political culture. My hunch is: As a Californian, Harris is more attuned to the cultural rhythms which often start in the entertainment industry in California.
Given these principles, how should we assess the 2020 Democratic field?
What follows is purely my own guess. I am not any more likely to be prescient than any of the supposed experts talking and writing every day. So, take these observations with a grain of salt.
First, erase the term “traditional power brokers” from your political lexicon. In the era of social media, direct communication to voters, and crowd-sourced fundraising, the old Washington kingmakers are dinosaurs who no longer matter. The 2016 election was their last gasp. The rise of Sanders (against the will of the Clintons) and the fall of Jeb Bush in 2016 are clear evidence of this.
Second, every male candidate should be substantially discounted. If this principle is right, then supporters of former Vice President Biden, Senator Sanders, Mayor Bill de Blasio, Senator Cory Booker, and others should start asking themselves who they want to support if their male candidate is simply unacceptable in the modern Democratic Party’s year of the woman.
Since Senator Harris is female and Senator Booker is male, you have to give Harris the edge in a head-on fight. California dwarfs New Jersey as a political base. Her stories seem a lot more honest, and her west coast goofiness is not quite as jarring as Booker’s Newark goofiness. I expect he will be an imitation, East Coast male shadow of her real campaign.
Importantly, there will be a race to be the “real left-winger” to appeal to both the media and the Ocasio-Cortez-wing (she would probably be the Democratic nominee if she were 35 years old, the constitutionally mandated minimum age to be president). Senator Amy Klobuchar could make a run at this role. However, given the Scandinavian stoicism of the culture of Minneapolis and Saint Paul, it will be very difficult for Klobuchar to effectively imitate the frenzied patterns of the modern Left. She is too rational and too reasonable for a Democratic Party that sees no limitation in its pursuits. Like the French Revolution, the emerging left-wing totalitarians require the guillotine to eliminate the imperfect for their sense of revolution to be satisfied.
Senator Warren has the hard-left views and the toughness to be the nominee. As a radical woman, she comes close to emerging as a serious contender in this new Democratic Party. However, she has three fatal weaknesses. First, she is as dishonest as Hillary Clinton. The discovery of her registration form for the Texas State Bar, where she claimed in her own handwriting that she is of Native American descent, proves she is willing to blatantly lie.
Second, if Ocasio-Cortez has the rhythm and charm to dominate the Facebook-Twitter-Instagram-YouTube-TV talk world, Warren has the lecturing, patronizing style of your high school chemistry teacher. She doesn’t project the energy to capture the essence of delusional fantasies which is the heart of the modern Left. She has the words, but she can’t get the rhythm. Warren is a person from the age of print, and that world is gone.
Third, Warren seems like a Puritan but pretends to be normal. Her effort to appear relatable as she was drinking a beer on Instagram was as unbelievable as her false claims about exploiting her exaggerated heritage in hopes of advancing her career. Trump proved in 2016 that authenticity can erase a lot of problems. Warren is inherently the least authentic candidate in the Democratic Party’s current list of possible candidates.
All of this gets us to Senator Harris.
You can read more here.