New Swing State Poll Has Biden Beating Trump in 6 Key States Trump Won in 2016

A new swing state poll by Redfield and Wilton Strategies has Biden beating Trump in all 6 swing states polled.

Trump won all six of these states in 2016.

Per Redfield and Wilton, a month ago, Redfield & Wilton Strategies began conducting polls of registered voters in six key swing states for the 2020 Presidential Election: Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

These six swing states were all won by Donald Trump in 2016, prior to which Barack Obama had also won all except Arizona in both 2008 and 2012 and North Carolina in 2012. Our polls last month in these six states found Joe Biden leading in all six states by margins ranging from 2% in Florida and North Carolina to 10% in Wisconsin.

A month later, we polled these six states again and found that Joe Biden continues to lead in all six swing states, and he has made marginal gains in Florida and North Carolina.

The new margins range from 4% in Florida to 11% in Michigan. It is worth noting, too, that this edition of our swing state polls was the first where we prompted the presumptive nominees from the Libertarian and Green Parties as options for respondents.

Our polls find Joe Biden with a slightly increased lead over Donald Trump from 2% in Florida and North Carolina in May to 4% in Florida and 6% in North Carolina this month. Likewise, Biden has increased his lead over Trump in Michigan from 8% to 11%, and in Pennsylvania from 9% to 10%, and maintained his 4% lead in Arizona.

On the other hand, Biden’s lead in Wisconsin fell slightly from 10% to 9%. These differences all fall within the Margins of Error, such that while the President lost significant ground in our national poll earlier this month, we are hesitant to say the picture has substantively changed in these six swing states.

At this moment, it appears that this election is being framed primarily as a referendum on President Trump rather than as a contest between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Likely voters for Joe Biden in all six states more frequently reported their primary reason for voting for Biden as their lack of support for Donald Trump.