President Trump tops former VP Joe Biden in Ohio and Texas, while trailing in California according to a new Emerson poll.
Ohio: Trump 46 Biden 43 (Trump +3)
Texas: Trump 47 Biden 41 (Trump +6)
California: Biden 59 Trump 29 (Biden +30)
Emerson polling reports Ohio, Texas, and California 2020: Trump with Narrow Leads in Ohio and Texas, but has Widespread Expectation of Being Re-elected
The latest Emerson College/Nexstar Media polls of Texas, California, and Ohio show President Donald Trump with a slight advantage in Ohio and Texas in the general election against presumptive Democratic nominee former Vice President Joe Biden. Trump also appears to be who voters in these states expect to win in November, as a majority expect him to secure a second term.
As the coronavirus pandemic continues to deeply affect the country, Governors in all three states maintain strong approval and partisan divides are stark in individual opinions on the country’s future.
General Election and Approval Ratings
In Ohio, a state that has historically been key to a Republican Presidential win in the general election, President Trump has a net positive approval rating, 48% approval to 45% disapproval. Republican Governor Mike DeWine has 71% approval and 15% disapproval among voters in the state. n=725, +/-3.5%.
Trump leads Biden by three points among Ohio voters, 46% to 43%; when undecided voters are included, Trump’s lead slightly tightens to 51% to 49%. Despite the close ballot test, 62% of Ohio voters think Trump will be re-elected.
A majority of Ohio voters, 56%, would prefer to vote by mail instead of vote in person in November because of safety concerns related to the coronavirus.
In Texas, a potential new battleground state, President Trump is at 46% approval and 44% disapproval. Republican Governor Greg Abbott has 54% approval and 32% disapproval among voters in the state. n=800, +/-3.4%.
Trump leads Biden by six points among Texas voters, 47% to 41%, but when undecided voters are included, Trump’s lead tightens to four points, 52% to 48%. Despite the close ballot test, a clear majority of voters in Texas, 61%, expect Trump to be re-elected.
A slight majority in Texas, 51%, would rather vote by mail this year because of concerns about safety related to the virus.
In California, one of the most Democratic states in the country, voters give President Trump a low job performance review with 59% disapproval and 30% approval. Conversely, the Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom received a 65% approval rating with 20% disapproval. n=800, +/-3.4%
Biden leads Trump by 30 points, 59% to 29%, among California voters. Undecided voters are split in their support, and when included the margin stays the same at 65% to 35%. Despite Biden’s 30 point lead, only 54% of California voters think he will win come November.
Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling, notes “Despite the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on society, this data does not find a shift in the Presidential race in Ohio, Texas or California.”