New Poll Shows Warren at Risk of Losing Her Home State Tuesday

A new poll from the Boston Globe has Elizabeth Warren narrowly losing her home state on Super Tuesday in what could be a devastating blow to a campaign that has underperformed expectations.

Sanders 24, Warren 22, Buttigieg 12, Bloomberg 13, Biden 11, Klobuchar 5, Steyer 2, Gabbard 1

Politico reports Bernie Sanders is outpacing Elizabeth Warren in polls across the Super Tuesday map. But one state stings more than the others: Massachusetts.

Warren is at risk of losing her home state, the latest indignity in her long slide in the polls in her own backyard. As recently as October, the two-term senator held a 20-percentage point lead over Sanders, according to a WBUR poll. In the latest version of the poll, released Friday, she trailed him by 8 points.

Now, in the run-up to the March 3 primary, Sanders is going all in on his bid to pick off Massachusetts, culminating in a four-day music and canvassing festival in Worcester that begins Friday.

“The trajectory for both Warren and Sanders follows national trends. October was the peak for Warren nationally as well, while Sanders is gaining everywhere lately. Looking inside the numbers, it’s young voters who are strong for Sanders in a really unique way. We saw that also in the Iowa and New Hampshire results, where nearly half the voters under age 30 were for Sanders in each state. So I don’t think this is unique to Massachusetts,” said Steve Koczela, president of the MassINC Polling Group, which conducted the polls.

“Certainly it will be interpreted differently here because Massachusetts is Sen. Warren’s home state. But the underlying dynamics are the same as what we’ve seen in polls and results elsewhere in recent weeks,” Koczela added.

Losing a home state primary doesn’t necessarily spell the end of the campaign for presidential hopefuls. But it’s both a humbling result and a sign of weakness that has caused some candidates — like Republican Marco Rubio in the 2016 GOP primary — to drop out. Others have ended their campaigns before risking a home state defeat and risking damage to their future political prospects.