A new University of North Florida poll shows Biden with a 6 point edge over President Trump in the key swing state of Florida.
In the poll, Biden has the backing of 46% vs. 40% for Trump.
Per TheHill, Michael Binder, the director of UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab, said that Biden’s lead should be taken with caution. The survey results are based on responses from 3,244 registered Florida voters, rather than likely voters, making it difficult to compare to past election data.
At the same time, Binder noted, the 2020 campaign season has been stopped in its tracks by the coronavirus pandemic as candidates have called off in-person events and largely halted their travel schedules.
“I would exercise caution when looking at these numbers, first these are registered voters — not likely voters; second, the campaign season has screeched to a grinding halt and people are rightly less focused on politics,” Binder said.
Still, he said, the same sample of voters indicated a slight advantage for Trump in 2016, when the real estate mogul carried the state over his Democratic rival at the time Hillary Clinton. That suggests that “something may be changing in Florida ahead of the election,” Binder said.
One potentially positive sign for Biden is in Jacksonville, where the former vice president leads Trump by 8 points. Republicans have carried Duval County, which encompasses Jacksonville, in every presidential election since 1980, though the party’s margin of victory has narrowed in recent years.