New Poll Has Trump Edging 2020 Dems in Texas, But the Margin is Concerning

A new poll from UT/Texas Tribune shows President Trump edging all of the 2020 Democrats in the key red state of Texas.

While Trump defeats all of his opponents in this poll, the margin is lower than conservatives might expect in a red state like Texas.

Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Texas in 2016 by the margin of 52.23% to 43.24%.

In the 2018 Texas Senate election, Ted Cruz received 50.9% of the vote, edging out Beto O’Rourke who garnered 48.3%.

The closer margin indicates Texas may be turning less solid red, likely due to changes in demographics and inflow from liberal states.

Per TexasTribune, a slight majority of all Texas voters — 52% — said they would not vote to reelect President Donald Trump in November. Republicans remain solidly in his corner: 90% said they would vote to reelect Trump, including 80% who said they “definitely” would do so. Democrats feel just as strongly: 93% said they would not vote for the president’s reelection, including 88% who would “definitely not” vote for him. Independent voters were against reelection, but less so: 38% said they would vote to reelect Trump, while 62% said they would vote against him.

“With Trump at the top of the ballot, in congressional and legislative races where candidates are running with margins of 5% or less, where the independent [voters] go could become a factor,” Henson said. “It adds uncertainty to those races.”

But when pitted against some of the top Democrats in hypothetical head-to-head contests, the president topped them all, if somewhat narrowly. Trump would beat Sanders by 2 percentage points, 47%-45%, within the poll’s margin of error. He’d beat Biden 47-43, Warren 47-44, Bloomberg 46-41, Buttigieg 47-42, and Klobuchar 46-41. Trump had 45% support against Yang’s 43%. The president, whose reelect number was under 50% in the survey, didn’t get a majority of the vote in any of the matchups, even while getting more support than each Democrat.

Meanwhile, the same poll has Bernie Sanders in the lead in the Democratic primary, followed by Biden, Warren, Bloomberg and Buttigieg.