New Poll Has McSally at a Double Digit Deficit Against Dem Opponent

A new poll from Predictive Insights has Arizona Republican Senator Martha McSally down by 13 points against her Democrat opponent Mark Kelly.

Per Newsweek, “McSally is doing terribly,” pollster Mike Noble told The Arizona Republic in regards to the polling. “There’s no way to find a bright spot on that one.”

Kelly has led McSally in nearly all public polls that have been conducted this year. The current Real Clear Politics average of Arizona polls, which does not include the latest OH Predictive Insights survey, shows Kelly ahead of McSally by an average of 8 points. That aggregation shows Kelly with support from about 49 percent of Arizona voters, while McSally is backed by just 41 percent.

AZCentral reports from the Republican uh-oh department: Arizona Sen. Martha McSally is sliding in the polls, dropping four percentage points in a month.

McSally now trails Democrat Mark Kelly by 13 points, according to the latest tracking poll by OH Predictive Insights.

While the April poll of 600 likely voters favored Kelly 51% to McSally’s 42%, in May it’s now 51%-38%.

The poll shows independents breaking more than 2-1 for Kelly.

“McSally is doing terribly,” pollster Mike Noble told me on Monday. “There’s no way to find a bright spot on that one.”

And that’s not even the bad news for McSally.

The bad news comes from Maricopa County, where Republicans rule.

At least, they did rule, until Democrat Kyrsten Sinema defeated McSally there in 2018 — stealing 88 mostly-suburban precincts that normally would go to the Republican nominee.

McSally’s declining support lies within the 4 percent margin of error in the May tracking poll, a blend of live and automated calls made between May 9 to May 11. But her Maricopa County numbers are a disaster.

In May 2019, this same tracking poll showed Kelly up over McSally, 46%-41%, among likely voters in Maricopa County.

In May 2020, Kelly has climbed to 54% in Maricopa County while McSally has dropped to 36%.

Just think about that for a moment. Kelly has gone from a five-point advantage in Maricopa County to an 18-point cruise.

That’s a stunner when you consider that Maricopa County in recent years always has gone for Republicans (well, except for now-ex-state Superintendent Diane Douglas and McSally)

Read more here.