Moments ago, 2020 candidate Pete Buttigieg announced that his campaign for the 2020 presidential election will be suspended.
Already analysts and pundits are trying to calculate the effect of Buttigieg’s dropping out on the race.
538 Editor in chief Nate Silver tweeted:
“Buttigieg dropping out is harmful to Sanders in 2 ways. Per the economist, relatively few Buttigieg voters were also considering Bernie. But, his voters will now help Biden, Warren and Bloomberg to hit 15% in more states and districts.”
Some others see it as a bit more of a wash. Saager Enjeti of the Hill tweeted:
Buttigieg dropping out is a big deal but generally a wash in [email protected] who benefits. His second choice is almost equally split between Bernie; Biden, Warren, and Bloomberg
Buttigieg dropping out is a big deal but generally a wash in [email protected] who benefits. His second choice is almost equally split between Bernie; Biden, Warren, and Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/WSINAsTZ2c
— Saagar Enjeti (@esaagar) March 1, 2020
A separate Quinnipiac poll had more 2nd choice supporters going to candidates other than Sanders.
Fox News reports Analysts generally have agreed now that the nomination is increasingly likely to come down to a race between Biden, who won by a large margin in South Carolina, and Sanders, who secured the popular vote in Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire.
However, in a memo on Sunday, Warren’s campaign said there would likely be a contested convention — and promised to make a “final play” for the nomination there.
“After Wisconsin, nearly one-third of the pledged delegates will still be waiting to be elected, and there will be a three-week gap between electing delegates for the first time since voting began,” Warren campaign chief Roger Lau wrote. “In the road to the nomination, the Wisconsin primary is halftime, and the convention in Milwaukee is the final play.”
Lau added: “Our grassroots campaign is built to compete in every state and territory and ultimately prevail at the national convention in Milwaukee.”
Marianne Williamson, the mystical author who abandoned her own presidential bid earlier this year and endorsed Sanders, said she sensed pending turbulence.
“[Tom] Steyer has dropped out, now Pete is dropping out,” Williamson wrote. “The moderates are consolidating. This is going to be a rocky week. Whichever way your passion lies, this is the moment to drill down. The next two days are everything.”