Financial giant JP Morgan Chase believes investors should position for the rising odds that President Trump wins re-election.
Strategist Marko Kolanovic suggested there could be a shift of 5-10 points in polls from Democrats to Republicans if the perception of protests turns from peaceful to violent.
Kolanovic also apparently believes in what some have dubbed the “shy Trump voters” effect, and believes people inaccurately answering polling questions could be skewing polls in favor of Biden.
Kolanovic wrote Monday “Certainly a lot can happen in the next ~60 days to change the odds, but we currently believe that momentum in favor of Trump will continue, while most investors are still positioned for a Biden win.”
He added “Implications could be significant for the performance of factors, sectors, COVID-19 winners/losers, as well as ESG.”
The latest betting odds according to the RealClearPolitics average have moved from over 20+ in favor of Biden to near dead even.