Former skeptics now warning of brokered convention ‘nightmare’ for Democrats

According to a new report from The Hill, Democrats who once though the idea of a brokered convention was far fetched now see the nightmare scenario increasingly likely.

Analytics site FiveThirtyEight currently give no-one winning a majority of delegates the highest probability of happening, above Sanders winning the nomination outright.

If Democrats indeed have a brokered convention they face the prospect of enraging Bernie’s army of supporters if they use Superdelegates to overcome his delate advantage going into the convention and force a more moderate candidate to the top of the ticket.

The Hill reports Democrats who were initially skeptical of the prospects for a brokered convention now see it as a likelier scenario with eight candidates still battling it out for the nomination.

As the Nevada caucuses approach, strategists say it’s becoming clear that none of the Democratic candidates are likely to win the majority of the delegates before the convention in July.

Democratic strategist Eddie Vale said he was once “extremely skeptical” of a brokered convention.

But lately, particularly with the Democratic Party requiring a proportional allocation of delegates, “it’s definitely seeming like it could happen.”

One Democrat who worked on two campaigns for former President Obama called a brokered convention “the biggest nightmare Democrats can imagine.”

“If you want to see a complete shit show, tune in to the brokered convention,” the Democrat said.

Adam Parkhomenko, who worked on former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign, said “this is currently heading for a convention fight at this rate.”

“If the number of candidates scoring in the double-digits that are splitting delegates continue to do so through Super Tuesday and beyond, it’s just math, unless all of a sudden a number of candidates drop out,” he said.

While campaigns say they are focused on the upcoming primaries, they are quietly thinking more about building out their teams in the event that a brokered convention takes shape, according to sources on various campaigns.

The reason? Most candidates seem unlikely to suspend their campaigns before Super Tuesday, mainly because the money continues to flow into their campaign coffers.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I- Vt.) and former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg raised $34 million and $24 million, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2019. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) has also benefited from fundraising momentum since her third place finish in New Hampshire.

Even candidates who finished behind the top three in New Hampshire — Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and former Vice President Joe Biden — have raked in more than $20 million each. And former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who has been ascending in recent polls, has shown no signs of pulling back on spending with his self-funded campaign.

Another complicating factor is the calendar of nominating contests. The four early-voting states — Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina — amount for just 6 percent of the overall delegates needed to win an outright nomination.

More than 50 percent of the delegates come in the March contests when states like California and Texas are up for grabs.

“The longer we go without a dominant front-runner, the greater the likelihood of a brokered convention,” said Democratic strategist Joel Payne, who served as an aide on Clinton’s 2016 campaign.

Payne said if the contests are split between three or four candidates, including Bloomberg, “the likelihood goes up exponentially.”

He added that the numbers game in a brokered convention scenario would work against Sanders in the long run.

“If it’s Bernie or even Warren on one side and three or four moderates on the other side, all with delegates, the odds are that the moderates would have enough delegates to team up and hold off a Sanders nomination,” Payne said.

“The longer we go without a dominant front-runner, the greater the likelihood of a brokered convention,” said Democratic strategist Joel Payne, who served as an aide on Clinton’s 2016 campaign.

Payne said if the contests are split between three or four candidates, including Bloomberg, “the likelihood goes up exponentially.”

He added that the numbers game in a brokered convention scenario would work against Sanders in the long run.

“If it’s Bernie or even Warren on one side and three or four moderates on the other side, all with delegates, the odds are that the moderates would have enough delegates to team up and hold off a Sanders nomination,” Payne said.