The election prediction model by Nate Silver’s popular analytics website FiveThirtyEight now only gives President Trump a 12 in 100 chance of defeating former Vice President Biden.
According to the 538 model, the forecast has become increasingly good for Biden and bad for Trump since early September.
538 writes “Should you trust the polls this year? Yes. But we understand that many people have lingering questions after 2016, even though Trump was just a normal polling error behind Hillary Clinton. So here’s what 15 pollsters told us they’ve changed since 2016 (a lot weight by education now) and what still worries them about 2020.”
They add “Democrats are modest favorites to win the U.S. Senate. But even if they do take control of the upper chamber, they’re most likely to end up with only the slimmest of majorities. There is the chance, however, that Democrats build up a bigger Senate majority in 2020, and, as Perry Bacon Jr. wrote, that chance largely comes down to states like Kansas, Montana and Alaska, where Democratic candidates are underdogs but still have a meaningful chance of pulling off upsets.”