New FiveThirtyEight Forecast Gives Biden a 71% Chance of Defeating President Trump

According to a new forecast model created by Nate Silver’s analytics company 538, challenger Joe Biden has a 71% chance of defeating President Trump in November.

Silver tweeted:

Our forecast is up!!!

It gives Joe Biden a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance.

Coincidentally, these are the exact same odds as in our final forecast in 2016!!!

(Clinton 71%, Trump 29%)

As was also the case in 2016, our model gives Trump a MUCH higher chance than other statistical models.

Nate Silver writes “If these numbers give you a sense of deja vu, it may be because they’re very similar to our final forecast in 2016 … when Trump also had a 29 percent chance of winning! (And Hillary Clinton had a 71 percent chance.)”

He adds “So if you’re not taking a 29 percent chance as a serious possibility, I’m not sure there’s much we can say at this point, although there’s a Zoom poker game that I’d be happy to invite you to.”

Silver also writes that the parallels between 2016 should not be taken too seriously because Biden polls better than Hillary in general.

“In 2016, the reason Trump had a pretty decent chance in our final forecast was mostly just because the polls were fairly close” Silver explains “close enough that even a modest-sized polling error in the right group of states could be enough to give Trump a victory in the Electoral College.”