According to the results of a new CNN poll, the majority of US voters believe President Trump will win re-election in 2020.
Left-leaning CNN’s polling indicated that at least 54% of Americans think Trump’s chance of victory in the upcoming election are guaranteed.
In fact, more people believe Trump’s re-election is imminent now, at 54%, than during this same time in Barack Obama’s administration in May of 2011, when 50% predicted his re-election following the death of Osama bin Laden.
The new poll finds 54% say their best guess is that Trump will win the 2020 election, 41% feel he will lose.
Americans are slightly more apt to say Trump will win now than they were to say Barack Obama would win a second term in May 2011, in a survey conducted just after the death of Osama bin Laden (50% thought Obama would win in that poll).
The new numbers on Trump are a reversal from December, when a narrow majority of 51% said they thought Trump would lose his bid for re-election.
The shift over that time comes mostly among those who disapprove of Trump’s handling of the presidency. In December, 81% in that group said they thought the President would lose, and now, that’s fallen to 67%. At the same time, the share who approve of the President and think he will win has held mostly steady (88% now vs. 85% in December).
On immigration, Americans also give the President a 41% approval rating, with a higher disapproval rating (54%) than he earns for his trade policies.
Turning to foreign policy, the President’s reviews are also largely negative. On his handling of North Korea, Americans’ opinions have shifted from positive (48% approve to 40% disapprove) to negative (41% approve and 45% disapprove) over the last year.
Disapproval outweighs approval for his handling of the situation with Iran, 43% to 32%. And more disapprove (48%) than approve (42%) of his handling of the role of commander-in-chief.
Still, Americans’ perceptions of the threat posed by Iran and North Korea has declined over the last year. In a May 2018 poll, 47% said they considered North Korea a “very serious threat to the United States,” now, just 34% feel the same way, the lowest number in CNN polls since 2015. The same 2018 poll found 40% viewed Iran as a very serious threat. That has fallen to 28% in the new poll, the smallest share to say so in CNN polling back to 2000.