BREAKING: Trump tops Biden in New Texas Poll

President Trump leads former VP Joe Biden in a new Texas poll 49% to 44%.

Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the state of Texas by the comfortable margin of 52.23% to 43.24%.

Some believe Beto O’Rourke’s closer race against Senator Ted Cruz in 2018 indicates the state may be turning more blue.

Texas Tribune reports Donald Trump would beat Joe Biden 49%-44% in Texas if the presidential race were held now, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.

In the Trump-Biden contest, Democratic and Republican voters overwhelmingly back their own party’s candidate. But independent voters are on the fence, with 39% favoring Trump, 29% favoring Biden and 32% saying they haven’t formed an opinion.

Female voters are split, 46% to 46%, on the presidential race. Male voters are solidly with Trump, 53% to 41%. In the poll, Trump beat Biden 60% to 34% among white voters, but Biden is far ahead with black voters (74% to 16%) and in the lead with Hispanic voters (50% to 40%). Other differences show up in geography, with 57% of urban voters favoring Biden, Trump leading in the suburbs, 49% to 43%, and 67% of rural voters in Texas saying they’d favor the Republican.

Trump has a harder race against himself. Ask Texans whether they would vote today to reelect the president and, as they have done in four previous UT/TT polls, they split down the middle: 50% say they would vote for him, 49% said they’d vote against him. Among Republican voters, 81% say they would definitely vote for Trump, and another 11% say they probably would. Democratic voters are just the opposite, with 85% definitely planning to vote for someone else, and 9% probably planning to. Most independent voters — 61% — would vote for someone else, while 39% say they’d vote for the president.

It’s only when you add Biden to the mix that Trump pulls ahead. “When you put a flesh-and-blood opponent against them, they do better,” said Daron Shaw, co-director of the poll and a government professor at the University of Texas at Austin.

This year might make that usual head-to-head comparison more difficult, Shaw said.

“The reality nationally is that, for the first time in a long time, the incumbent isn’t going to be able to make it a comparison,” he said. “It’s going to be a referendum election about how the president is doing. First of all, it’s Trump, Trump, Trump all the time. And all the news is about coronavirus.”