BREAKING: Shock Poll has Trump Leading Biden Nationally and in Key Swing States

A shock outlier poll from the Democracy Institute/ Sunday Express has Trump leading Biden both in the national popular vote and in several key swing states.

Democracy Institute/ Sunday Express poll results

National Popular Vote

  • Trump = 48%
  • Biden = 46%
  • Undecided = 6% 

Battleground States – Popular Vote 

Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin 

  • Trump = 48%
  • Biden = 43%
  • Undecided = 9% 

Florida – Popular Vote

  • Trump = 47%
  • Biden = 45%
  • Undecided = 8%

Minnesota – Popular Vote

  • Trump = 46%
  • Biden = 45%
  • Undecided = 9%

New Hampshire – Popular Vote

  • Trump = 46%
  • Biden = 43%
  • Undecided = 11%

Electoral College Vote Projection (if election voting mirrored these poll results)

270 needed to win

  • Trump = 309 [picks-up Minnesota & New Hampshire]
  • Biden = 229 [picks-up Wisconsin]

Enthusiasm Gap?

Q. “Are you strongly or very enthusiastic about your choice of candidate?”

  • Trump voters = 79%
  • Biden voters = 41%

Q. “Is your vote for Trump/Biden a positive vote for your candidate or a negative vote against his opponent?

  • Trump voters: positive vote = 84%; negative vote = 16%
  • Biden voters: positive vote = 32%; negative vote = 68%

Q “Could your vote change before Election Day?”

  • Trump voters: Yes = 4%
  • Biden voters: Yes = 10%

From Express:

The third in a series of monthly Democracy Institute/ Sunday Express polls has given President Trump a surprise lead over his Democrat rival of 48 percent to 46 percent, his clearest lead yet.

Crucially, President Trump has a lead of 48 percent to 43 percent in the swing states Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin which would put him back in the White House with an electoral college tally of 309 to Biden’s 229.

Specifically, in Florida Trump has a 47 to 45 point lead, Minnesota (where the black lives matters protests began) a 46/45 lead, and New Hampshire a 46/43 lead.

The polling suggests Mr Trump is emerging as the race leader because of a belief he is best in handling the economy.

With a third of voters putting the economy as the top election issue and 66 percent thinking that the economy is bouncing back after coronavirus, voters believe that Trump is better for the economy by 57 percent to 43 percent.

Writing for the Sunday Express, Director of the Democracy Institute Patrick Basham suggested that the Biden campaign may have “reached its high water mark”.

He said: “Although Biden remains in a competitive race with Donald Trump, and may well do so until election day, his support isn’t growing. And, tellingly, almost all of the issues that matter most to voters are trending in President Trump’s favour.

“More Americans are concerned about the economy and keeping their current, or getting a new, job. They don’t especially blame Trump for the lockdown-induced economic contraction, and they think he’ll do a better job of righting the economic ship than Biden.”

But while most polls have a clear lead for Biden following criticism of President Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, the Democracy Institute poll again shows that Trump is winning from “shy voters” who do not want to tell people they are voting for him.

According to the poll 71 percent of Trump voters are “shy” to admit it compared to 66 percent a month ago.

However, 79 percent of Trump voters are enthusiastic about their candidate compared to just 41 percent of Biden voters, two points lower than a month ago.

Meanwhile, only 4 percent of Trump voters believe they could change their mind while 10 percent of Biden voters could switch.

Concerns that Mr Biden may be suffering from the early stages of dementia are also increasingly boosting Donald Trump’s chances of victory in the Presidential election, a new poll has revealed.

According to this month’s poll 58 percent believe Mr Biden is suffering from cognitive decline compared to 55 percent last month.

More worryingly for the former Vice President and Senator, is that 48 percent are less likely to vote for him as a result compared to 40 percent a month ago.

This follows a series of public missteps by Mr Biden, 77, has stumbled with his words, mangled names and concepts and appeared to drift off subject.