Blue-State Exodus Gains Momentum and Will Help the GOP Gain House Seats

A new Op-Ed from the Hill points out how an exodus from blue states will help Republicans gain congressional seats after the 2020 census redistricting.

Of the 7 states projected to gain a congressional seat, 5 are in states Trump won, 2 in states Hillary won.

Of the 10 states projected to lose a congressional seat, 5 are in states Trump won, 5 are in states Hillary won. However 2 of those states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, are considered “swing states” and Michigan was considered left leaning until Trump’s shocking 2016 win.


From TheHill

According to an Election Data Services analysis of the Census Bureau report, “The population projections point toward a ten [congressional] seat change over 17 states across the nation by year 2020.”

Seven states are projected to gain one or more congressional seats after the 2020 election; 10 states are projected lose one seat.

The red-state leader is Texas, with a projected pickup of three congressional seats following the 2020 census — and that after gaining four congressional seats after the 2010 election. Florida will pick up two seats, and Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon will each gain one, according to the analysis.

All 10 losing states — Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia — lose only one seat.

Of the seven states gaining seats, five voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. Of the 10 states losing seats, five voted for Trump and five for Hillary Clinton.

But two of those five losing states that voted for Trump — Michigan and Pennsylvania — surprised most analysts since they have been blue-leaners for several years. And West Virginia is losing population in part because of a struggling state economy that has been so dependent on coal.