Biden May Lead in Polling, But Warren Leads in Prediction Market and Is Drawing Larger Crowds

While former VP Biden is ahead of 2020 rival Elizabeth Warren in most polling, Warren has a surprisingly large lead in prediction markets and is also drawing larger crowds.

The current RealClearPolitics averages have Biden with a 10 point overall advantage over Warren.

However, two recent polls from the Economist and NBC/WSJ have Warren closing the gap to within 5 points.

Furthermore in the prediction markets of PredictIt, where speculators put actual money on the line, Warren holds a surprisingly large lead over Biden at this time of 15%. 

The exact reason between the dichotomy between actual polling and the Prediction markets is not clear, however the most common speculation is that Warren and her more progressive brand of politics have “momentum.”

This can be seen in the latest NBC/WSJ breakdown in enthusiasm. 

Warren is also drawing larger crowds than Biden, culminating in a crowd of possibly 20k+ in NYC last weekend.

Another speculation as to why Warren is leading in Prediction markets may be the growing sense that she is a better debater and less gaffe prone.

Some believe, the liberal media, which may favor covering the stark contrast of a Warren vs. Trump matchup, may also give her an edge over Biden down the stretch.

With plenty of time to go before Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, one thing is for sure is nothing is for certain.

This article was written by the staff of 

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