A new Morning consult poll has both Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden beating Trump in a hypothetical general election matchup nationally. Warren also holds a slim lead over Trump.
Biden 46% Trump 41%
Bernie 46% Trump 42%
Warren 43% Trump 41%.
Newsweek notes that Bernie’s hypothetical lead over Trump has doubled from 2% to 4%.
However, these national numbers should be taken with a grain of sale.
As the Guardian reports political analyst Larry Sabato has calculated that the November election could see Trump being outgunned by his Democratic challenger in the popular vote – the total number of votes cast nationwide – by twice the amount that Hillary Clinton surpassed him in 2016, yet still return to the White House for a second term.
“It is entirely possible that in 2020 we will once again see Republicans losing the popular vote and winning the electoral college, this time potentially by even greater margins,” he said.
In the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton led in polling by an average of 3.2% prior to the election.
Her final popular vote margin was 2.1% but she lost the electoral vote by a large margin – 306 for Trump 232 for Clinton.
Newsweek reports Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has doubled his lead over President Donald Trump in a hypothetical general election match-up, according to new polling from Morning Consult.
The latest data, which was drawn from surveys of more than 40,000 registered voters from January 6 to 12, showed Sanders beating Trump by 4 percentage points, up from a previous 2 percent lead, at 46 percent compared to the president’s 42 percent. Although Biden still performs slightly better—46 percent compared to 41 percent for Trump—Morning Consult noted that Sanders outperformed Biden among independents and young voters, or those 18 to 29 years old.
“Some Democrats are nervous that giving Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, a self-described socialist, the party’s presidential nomination would make it harder to achieve their ultimate goal of making President Donald Trump a one-term president,” Eli Yokley of Morning Consult noted in a blog post about the results.
However, Yokley added that this perspective didn’t match its polling results. “Sanders performs better than his rivals, including front-runner Joe Biden, with groups viewed as key to beating the unpopular incumbent.”
Media pundits and analysts have been noting Sanders’ resurgence in national and state-level polls since December, as the senator had appeared to slump in 2019 as fellow progressive candidate Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts had surged along with more moderate former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana. Meanwhile, Biden has remained strong in polling nationwide, while Warren and Buttigieg remain to be strong contenders for the Democratic nomination.
Even Trump noted that Sanders was growing prominence in the primary with a Sunday tweet.
It means you’re going to lose. https://t.co/CVBKoKq8DT
— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) January 12, 2020
“Wow! Crazy Bernie Sanders is surging in the polls, looking very good against his opponents in the Do Nothing Party,” the president wrote. “So what does this all mean? Stay tuned!”
Sanders later retweeted Trump’s post, writing: “It means you’re going to lose.”